Midterm Mega-Donor Campaign Allocator | Texas $200M Senate War Chest Simulator

1. War Chest Budget Split Total: $200M

STRATEGIC PRESETS:

Broadcast Television (LUR Surcharge) 40% ($80.0M)

Connected TV / OTT Streaming 25% ($50.0M)

Digital Microtargeting / GOTV 15% ($30.0M)

Field Ground Game (Door Knockers) 15% ($30.0M)

Direct Mail, Polling & Compliance 5% ($10.0M)

2. Market Share Distribution Texas DMAs

Texas DMA Ad Saturation & GRP Diminishing Returns D3 Real-Time Saturation Curve

Designated Market Area (DMA) Outreach & Saturation Ledger

Texas DMA	Voters	Allocated ($)	Super PAC GRPs	Contacts	Saturation Status

Super PAC vs. Candidate Hard-Money Penalty: Under federal law (47 U.S.C. § 315), candidate committees receive Lowest Unit Rate (LUR) ad slots ($360-$710/point). Independent Expenditure Super PACs pay open market rates with a 100% to 150% surcharge ($720-$1,420/point).

War Chest ROI Telemetry Live Metrics

Total Unique Voter Reach

15.84M

94.5% of Registered Texas Voters

Total GRPs Bought (PAC)

88,410

5.6x Avg Ad Frequency

Field Doors Knocked

3.75M

$8.00 avg / target contact

Candidate Buying Power Gap

$52.3M

Lost to Super PAC market rate surcharges

Cost Per Net Persuaded Vote

$48.20

Based on saturated elasticity curve

Voter Frequency Distribution

Strategic Recommendation:

Media saturation reached in DFW and Houston. Diminishing returns suggest shifting 8% of broadcast spend into Rio Grande Valley ground canvassing and Alamo digital microtargeting.