Campaign Rhetoric vs Policy Prediction Market Simulator

Statement & Shock Parameters

Select Campaign Declaration

Rhetoric Intensity (Impact) +7.0%

Initial Implied Probability 18.0%

Media Amplification Factor 1.4x

Order Book Liquidity Depth (USD) $125,000

Simulated Order Size (USD) $15,000

Sentiment Decay Half-Life (Hours) 24h

Contract Odds Density Shift (Baseline vs Updated Shock) --- Baseline | — Shock Curve

Dynamic Order Book Depth & Market Impact Moderate Liquidity Shift (+14% buy pressure)

BID / ASK DEPTH GRAPH (YES / NO CONTRACTS)

Slippage & Arbitrage Metrics

Simulated Order Size: $15,000

Expected Average Fill: $0.262

Estimated Price Slippage: -1.18%

Arbitrage Yield Spread: +2.45%

Selected Statement	Francesca Hong campaign declaration
Initial Baseline Odds	18.0% ($0.180)
Rhetoric Impact Delta	+7.0%
Updated Implied Probability	25.0% ($0.250)
Implied Odds Ratio	3.0 to 1
Market Confidence Score	72 / 100
Order Book Impact	Moderate Liquidity Shift (+14% buy pressure)
Projected 24h Volume	$680,000