Event Anchor: Bernie Sanders states "I don't think so" when asked if he plans to endorse Francesca Wong in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Presets:
Primary Vote Margin Distribution Curve (D3.js)
Baseline Odds
News-Adjusted Odds
Win Probability
13.0%
Baseline: 35.0%
Fair Contract Price
$0.130
Market: $0.350
Market Edge / Alpha
-22.0%
Overpriced "YES"
Kelly Position Size
33.8% NO
Optimal Bankroll %
Model Parameters & Sensitivity
Endorsement Signal Impact Shift
-22.0%
Simulate probability shift caused by Sanders' commentary.
Progressive Voter Alignment Weight
15.0%
Share of WI Democratic primary voters responsive to Sanders' cue.
Baseline Market Price / Prob
35.0%
Current Polymarket price before news digestion.
Order Book Liquidity Depth
$50,000
Affects slippage and expected trade execution value.
Wisconsin Primary Voter Coalition Counterfactuals
WI Primary Model
| Voter Group | Primary Share | Baseline Support | Adjusted Support | Net Margin Impact |
|---|
Contract Expected Value (EV) Analysis
Polymarket Order Book
| Position | Market Price | Model Value | Expected ROI | Kelly Bet |
|---|