Probability & Tariff Inputs
LIVE MATH ENGINE
41.0%
0% (No Tariff) 41% Baseline 100% (Certain)
Bilateral Trade Sector Parameters
$400B Total Scope
Nominal Annual Friction
$0.00B
If 100% Tariff Applied
Expected Friction (P)
$0.00B
Weighted Exposure
Elastic Absorbed Friction
$0.00B
Post-Substitution Impact
Optimal Binary Hedge
0M YES
Est. Cost: $0M
Bilateral Sector Flow Friction (D3) Thickness = Trade Vol | Glow = Risk
Polymarket Binary Hedge Payoff Profile Unhedged vs Hedged PnL
100%
Allocates prediction market contracts to cover expected macro friction.
15%
Reduces price elasticity shock through physical inventory & alternate vendor routing.
Sector Sensitivity & Tariff Friction Matrix
Sector Trade Vol ($B) Nominal Tariff Elasticity (ε) Expected Tariff Shock ($B) Elastic Absorption ($B) Net Effective Tariff Optimal Contract Sizing
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: CANADA TARIFF PROBABILITY STRESS TEST
At an implied Polymarket tariff probability of 41.0% across $400.0B in bilateral US-Canada trade, nominal tariff friction is calculated at $66.75B. Accounting for cross-border substitution elasticity (ε) and a 15% operational buffer, the expected annual risk impact is $21.36B. Purchasing 21.36M YES contracts at market implied odds ($0.41/share) achieves an optimal macro hedge for cross-border supply chains.
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