Expected Canada GDP Impact
-72.0 bps
Weighted probability model estimate
Expected US GDP Impact
-11.5 bps
Supply chain spillover burden
Highest Risk Sector
steel
-25.0% Full Tariff Shock
Polymarket Odds Delta
+0.0%
Balanced baseline match
Decision Tree Probability Matrix
D3 ENGINE
Cross-Sector Shock Exposure
Custom Counter-Offer Modeler
Simulate Canada offering structural concessions to scale back 50% tariff baseline down toward zero.
Polymarket Orderbook Sync
Market Outcome: "50% Tariff Hits in 7 Days"
LIVE YES CONTRACT
MARKET PRICE
35.0¢
MODEL PROB
35.0%
0.0% EDGE
Orderbook Depth (50% Tariff Contract)
| TYPE | PRICE | SHARES | IMPLIED GDP |
|---|
Arbitrage Interpretation:
Model matches current market baseline. Adjust probability sliders on the left to stress-test mispricing opportunities.
QA STATS:
Canada GDP: -72 bps
US GDP: -11.5 bps
High Risk Sector: steel
Market Status: Balanced baseline with 45% conditional probability on negotiated concession deal