Carney Political Approval
44.5%
0.0% vs Baseline
Domestic CPI Inflation Impact
+0.00%
Base CPI: 2.1%
Estimated Annual Export Loss
$0.0B
Total Base Exports: $352.5B
Bilateral Trade Flow Transmissions
Supply Chain Cost Cascades (4-Quarter Projection)
| Export Industry Sector | Baseline Exports ($ USD B) | Applied US Tariff Rate | Direct Export Volume Drop | Domestic Price Transmission |
|---|
Macroeconomic & Political Engine Parameters
This simulator constructs a multi-sector elasticity cascade for bilateral trade between Canada and the United States. Price elasticities of export demand are calibrated as follows: Automotive (-1.4), Steel & Aluminum (-1.1), Energy (-0.4, high inelasticity), Agriculture (-0.8), and Consumer Goods (-1.2).
Mark Carney Political Durability Index: Approval rating shifts are estimated through domestic inflation acceleration (drag coefficient: -1.2 per 1% CPI hike), regional manufacturing job exposure losses (-0.15 index point per $1B export contraction in Ontario/Quebec), offset by national counter-tariff rallying effects (+0.8 index buffer) and fiscal subsidy packages (+0.5 index buffer).
Canada–US Tariff & Political Impact Simulator
Baseline State Active
Carney Approval: 44.5% | CPI Impact: +0.00%