Interactive Diamond & Manfred Placed Runner
Click Bases to Toggle RunnersTap bases to place/remove runners. Baseline: Runner on 2nd (Manfred Rule).
Leverage & Expectancy Telemetry
MLB RE24 EngineCardinals Win Expectancy
38.6%
Leverage Index (LI)
3.14
EXTREME HIGH LEVERAGE
Run Expectancy (RE24)
0.88
Runs expected this half
Post-Hit Win Delta
74.2%
If RBI extra-base hit occurs
Tactical Decision Recommendation
Swing away (Sacrifice bunt decreases home team expected win pct by 4.2% when down by 1 in extras)
St. Louis Cardinals Rally Stepper (D3.js)
Timeline CurveTactical Decision Matrix (Down 1, Extra Innings)
Win Equity Delta| Strategy Choice | Outcome Probability | Next State RE | Win Equity Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swing Away (Cardinals Approach) | 68.4% productive | 0.88 runs | +4.2% Optimal |
| Sacrifice Bunt (Tradition) | 71.0% sacrifice success | 0.54 runs | -4.2% Win Equity |
| Steal Third Base | 65.0% success rate required | 0.94 runs | -2.8% Risk Penalty |
| Defensive Intentional Walk (Away) | Forces double play order | 1.12 runs | -6.5% Def. Equity |
Source-grounded analytic fact: In modern MLB placed-runner extra innings, trading an out via sacrifice bunt reduces home team win probability unless down by 0 with 0 outs.