Game State
Bot 10th (1 Out)
Leverage Index
4.82 LI
Win Expectancy
100.0%
WPA Added
+37.2% WPA
Outcome
Walk-Off Win Seattle Mariners
100%
Winning Run Scores! Mariners Walk Off in 10th
Leo Rivas drives a 96.4 mph single into right-center field. The ghost runner rounds 3B and crosses home plate uncontested (+37.2% WPA, 4.82 LI).
Leo Rivas Walk-Off (Actual)
Bot 10th, 1 Out, Ghost R2, Single to RF (4.82 LI)
Bases-Loaded Walk
Bot 10th, Full Count, Bases Loaded (8.40 LI)
Walk-Off Sacrifice Fly
Bot 10th, 1 Out, R3 Tag & Score (+29.5% WPA)
10th Inning Walk-Off HR
Bot 10th, 0 Outs, Deep Fly Over Fence (+48.2% WPA)
| Defensive Strategy | Pre-Play WE | Out Expectancy | Run Conceded % | Leverage (LI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal Depth (Pitch to Rivas) | 62.8% | 68.2% | 54.0% | 4.82 LI |
| Intentional Walk (Set up DP) | 58.4% | 74.1% | 46.5% | 5.15 LI |
| Infield Drawn In (Cut at Home) | 64.1% | 52.0% | 61.2% | 4.98 LI |
| Outfield Shallow (No Sac Fly) | 61.5% | 63.0% | 58.7% | 4.75 LI |
MLB Extra-Inning Ghost Runner Leverage Dynamics
Under MLB extra-inning rules, starting the bottom of the 10th with an automatic runner on 2nd base boosts baseline home team Win Expectancy to 62.8%. Leo Rivas's clean single pushed win probability to 100.0% (+37.2% WPA) with an extreme high-leverage coefficient of 4.82 LI (where 1.0 is MLB average).