Explore every path to the College Football Playoff for the Iowa Hawkeyes. Click each game to cycle through Win, Loss, or Unknown — watch the playoff probability update instantly. Export your scenario to share or save.
Each game card shows the opponent, date, and conference status. Click the W (Win), L (Loss), or ? (Unknown) button to set that game's outcome. The card border and background update to reflect your choice.
The probability uses a simplified but transparent model: base rate by win total, conference championship bonus, quality win bonuses (top-15, top-25), bad loss penalties (unranked, FCS), and strength-of-schedule adjustment. It's a scenario explorer, not a betting engine.
All Wins sets every game to Win. All Losses sets every game to Loss. Conference Only sets non-conference games to Win and conference games to Unknown. Reset All clears everything to Unknown.
Export JSON downloads a machine-readable file with every game, outcome, and computed metrics — useful for sharing or further analysis. Export Text downloads a human-readable summary with record, probability, and key talking points.
This tool assumes the 12-team CFP format (5 conference champions + 7 at-large). It does not model other teams' outcomes, tiebreakers, or committee subjectivity. Strength of schedule uses a static opponent rating. Treat probabilities as directional, not precise.
Use Tab to navigate game cards, Enter or Space to cycle outcomes. All controls have visible focus states. Color is never the only indicator — text labels and patterns convey state.