1. Baseline Scenario Presets
2. AI Exposure & Automation Velocity
GenAI White-Collar Velocity
65%
Exposure across graduate desk jobs & IT platforms
Coastal Industrial Robotics
55%
Displacement velocity for mid-career assembly labor
Service & Logistics Automation
40%
Impact on flexible gig, delivery, and migrant hospitality roles
Demographic Aging Drag
1.2x
Natural working-age cohort contraction multiplier
Youth Unemp. (2030 Peak)
24.2%
▲ +6.4% vs Baseline
Displaced Workers
58.4M
7.6% of Workforce
Fiscal Rebalance Drag
2.8%
of annual GDP
Reskilled Transition Rate
42.5%
Absorbed by New Tech
Demographic Labor Flow & Displacement Model (770M Total Labor Pool)
Status: Critical Stress in Graduate Cohort3. Macroeconomic Impact Trajectories (2025–2035)
Projections updated in real-time
Cohort Vulnerability & Exposure Matrix
| Cohort / Segment | Est. Pool | Automation Exposure | Friction Risk | State Buffer Cushion |
|---|
Institutional Labor Context:
China's 11.8 million annual college graduates encounter severe mismatch as GenAI compresses traditional junior white-collar ladders (coding, audit, clerical). Meanwhile, inland hukou barriers and SOE pension fiscal pressures limit natural geographic labor mobility.
4. State Policy Lever Matrix
SOE Hiring & Retention Mandate
30%
Absorbs graduate friction; increases SOE fiscal debt ratio
National Reskilling Subsidies
45%
Direct transition pipeline to high-end manufacturing
Algorithmic Automation Tax
15%
Funds social security pool; slightly cools enterprise AI velocity
Hukou-Decoupled UI Safety Net
40%
Prevents rural-migrant slide into long-term poverty