China Industrial AI & Workforce Transition Simulator

Model Inputs 2025–2046 Horizon

Workforce Contraction Rate 1.2% / yr

Annual labor retirement & demographic attrition.

Robot Adoption Speed 15.0 pts

Velocity of industrial robot deployment in factories.

AI Productivity Multiplier 1.80×

Effective output leverage per autonomous production unit.

Initial Active Workforce 750M

Estimated baseline working-age population (millions).

Initial Robot Density 390 / 10k

Robots per 10,000 manufacturing employees.

"With a rapidly ageing and shrinking workforce, China is betting on AI adoption and robots to maintain its industrial strength. But getting the timing right will be hard." — The Economist

2046 Workforce

582.1M

Active labor pool

Automation Share

68.4%

Capital share of tasks

Output Index (2046)

142.5

Base 100 = 2025 output

Peak Timing Risk

2031

Max labor-robot friction

Manufacturing Output Index (Base 100)

Workforce Size (Scaled / % of 2025)

Industrial Automation Share (%)

Transition Timing Friction Gap

Model Inputs 2025–2046 Horizon

Economic Projections