China Excess Savings Flow: Global Imbalance Simulator

Macroeconomic Regimes

Structural Policy Levers

Household Income Share (% GDP) 43.0%

SOE Dividend Distribution (%) 15.0%

Social Safety Net Depth Moderate

Domestic Capital Absorption Cap (% GDP) 41.0%

Gross National Savings

45.2%

of GDP

Domestic Absorption (I)

41.0%

Fixed Asset Inv.

Current Account (S − I)

+4.2%

External Capital Outflow

Macro Identity Ledger

Household Savings: 23.5%

Corporate/SOE Retained: 17.2%

Gov/Fiscal Savings: 4.5%

Total Savings (S): 45.2%

Domestic Investment (I): 41.0%

Net Outflow / CA Surplus: +4.2%

Capital Sink Distribution

1. PBOC FX Reserves (US Treasuries) 25%

2. Domestic Property / Infrastructure 55%

3. Outbound Direct Investment / BRI 10%

4. Manufacturing Export Capacity 10%

Nageswaran-Srinivas Thesis: Headline CA surplus swings reflect changing paths of domestic/external absorption sinks, not resolution of structural under-consumption.