China Mental Healthcare Capacity & Affordability Simulator

Quantitative Policy & Healthcare Delivery Bottleneck Engine

Grounded Analysis: The Economist (2026)
Social Stability Stress Index
78.4 / 100
Critical (Acute untreated caseload risk)
Rural Luxury Affordability Gap
43.2%
Monthly therapy as % rural disposable income
Tier-3 Hospital Bed Utilization
94.0%
Severe bottlenecks in specialized care
Untreated Patient Population
94.5M
Out of ~135M estimated in-need adults

Policy Levers

Public health insurance reimbursement for psychotherapy and psychiatric pharmaceuticals.
Share of primary outpatient mental health cases diverted to community clinics vs Tier-3 hospitals.
Licensed psychiatrists and certified psychotherapists per 100,000 population (OECD avg: ~15).
Direct regional voucher subsidies compensating lower rural disposable incomes (Baseline: ¥1,850/mo).
1: Fast-track surge (curbs cost, quality risks), 2: Standard, 3: High credential oversight.
Bottleneck Diagnosis: High out-of-pocket costs keep mental health a luxury item for rural households (43.2% income share). Overreliance on Tier-3 hospitals creates a 94% utilization choke point while 94.5M remain untreated.

Multi-Tier Patient Capacity & Caseload Flow (Annual Millions)

5-Year Policy Horizon: Stability Stress & Rural vs Urban Burden

Model Status: Active Simulation (Deterministic Model v2.4)
Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super