Structural Drivers
Model v2.4
Preset Scenarios
Foreign Wage Premium Ratio
Visa & Geopolitics Friction
68 / 100
Cost & Currency Disparity Multiplier
4.20x
Domestic C9/985 Capacity Growth
+4.5%
State Sector / Guokao Preference Weight
0.72
Base Qualified Applicant Cohort
750,000
Domestic Retention
83.6%
Outbound Share
Mobility Engagement
42.8
Overseas Breakeven
14.2 yrs
Annual Higher Ed Destination Allocation
Live D3 Model
Dynamic Insight: The narrowing returnee salary premium combined with rigid domestic public sector recruitment requirements (civil service & state-owned enterprises) has significantly shifted the cost-benefit calculus for prospective Chinese overseas students.