The Clarity Act Senate Vote & Amendment Simulator 100 Senators

Live legislative mathematical model based on @YahooFinance and @scottmelker's Senate floor breakdown.
Senate Vote Tracking: "The Clarity Act faces an important vote in the Senate tomorrow. @scottmelker breaks down the voting math and what changes are coming to the bill."
Floor Outlook Toss-Up / Filibuster Risk
Passage Probability 49.0%
Quorum Met (51+)
Effective YES Votes 49 Need 51 for simple maj / 60 cloture
Effective NO Votes 40 Base opposing + defections
Undecided / Swing 11 Floating floor votes
Quorum Status Active 51 Senators required
Legislative Levers
42
38
@scottmelker Swaps Breakdown

Enables Melker's reported bipartisan negotiation math: +4 amendment swaps to YES, with +2 rebel defections to NO.

Proposed Floor Amendments Impact on undecideds
Briefing Export Status clarity-act-senate-vote-simulation-23.json
Awaiting simulation trigger or export...
100-Seat Senate Chamber Distribution Hemispherical Floor Seats
51 Maj
60 Cloture
YES (49)
UNDECIDED (11)
NO (40)

Legislative Vote Arithmetic Breakdown

Component Votes YES Votes NO Swing / Balance Context
Baseline Party Coalitions 42 38 20 Initial co-sponsors vs hard opposition
Melker Adjustment Swaps +4 +2 -6 Bipartisan corridor trades & defections
Active Amendments Net +3 0 -3 Self-Custody Exemption Clarification
Effective Senate Floor Total 49 40 11 100 / 100 Quorum Confirmed
Senate Rules Context: Passage requires a simple majority (51 votes) with the Vice President breaking ties. However, overcoming a filibuster (cloture) requires 60 votes. At 49 votes, the bill is in Toss-Up / Filibuster Risk mode unless undecided swing senators break toward the sponsor's compromise.
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