Atmospheric GHG Stock-and-Flow Thermal Lag Simulator

Demonstrating why global warming is driven by cumulative atmospheric stock (CO₂ ppm) rather than instantaneous emission rate (flux Gt/yr), and how ocean heat capacity creates decades of thermal inertia lag.

Emission Scenarios:
1. Stock & Flow Pipeline Dynamics Flux (Gt/yr) accumulates into Stock (ppm)
2. Multi-Series Response Curves (2025 – 2125)
Emissions (Flux)
CO₂ Stock (ppm)
Radiative Forcing (W/m²)
Transient Surface ΔT
Equilibrium ΔT (ECS)
3. Scrubber & Ocean Thermal Commitment Inspection Year 2025
Emissions (Flux) 40.0 Gt/yr Annual Addition Rate
CO₂ Stock 420 ppm Cumulative Atmosphere
Radiative Forcing 2.17 W/m² Logarithmic Forcing
Transient Temp ΔT 1.25 °C Observed Surface Warming
Thermal Lag Gap +0.51 °C Committed Pipeline Heat
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Physics Proof: At Net Zero emissions (Flux = 0), atmospheric CO₂ concentration stops increasing, but surface warming does not drop immediately. Ocean heat capacity delays warming equilibrium, leaving a +0.51 °C unrealized thermal commitment.
Model Projection Table Decadal Snapshot
Year Emissions (Gt/yr) Stock CO₂ (ppm) Forcing (W/m²) Transient ΔT (°C) Committed ΔT (°C) Thermal Lag (°C)
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