Game State Controls
Inning
Bot 9th
Outs
2 Outs
Count
3 - 2
Clutch Analytics & WPA Engine
Scenario: Wilyer Abreu Last Strike
18.5%
Win Probability (Pre)
Base chance of winning prior to pitch
4.82
Leverage Index (LI)
Extreme High Leverage
64.2%
Win Prob (Post Single)
+45.7% WPA Swing
Moment Summary: Wilyer Abreu's Clutch Single
With 2 outs in the Bottom of the 9th, 2 strikes, and runners on 1st & 2nd while trailing by 1 run, the Red Sox were facing an 81.5% probability of defeat. Abreu's game-tying hit produced a massive +45.7% Win Probability Added (WPA), swinging Boston's chances from 18.5% up to 64.2%.