MLB CLUTCH SIM

MLB Game State & Home Run Impact Analyzer

⚾ Interactive Ballpark & State
Miami Marlins 1 Away
BOT 6th 1 Out Count: 1-1
San Diego Padres 6 Home (Batting)
1B 2B 3B

💡 Click on 1B, 2B, or 3B to toggle runners before the plate appearance.

📊 Live Win Probability Swing
Ty France: 3-Run Homer
Padres Win Probability Shift (WPA) +24.5% Padres probability jumped from 74.2% to 98.7%
Run Expectancy Delta
+2.11 RE
Pre-Pitch Win Probability (Padres 3, Marlins 1) 74.2%
Post-Blast Win Probability (Padres 6, Marlins 1) 98.7%
Advanced Situational Metrics
Metric / State Dimension Pre-Play State Post-Play State
Scoreboard Differential +2 (Padres 3-1) +5 (Padres 6-1)
Runners On Base 1st & 2nd Bases Empty
Inning Run Expectancy (24-State RE24) 0.89 Runs 3.00 (Scored) + 0.25 RE
Clutch Index / Leverage Index (LI) 1.48 (High Leverage) 0.18 (Garbage/Closed)
CLUTCHPOINTS MLB IMPACT CARD SOURCE GROUNDED
Ty France LAUNCHES a 3-run homer 🚀 | Padres 6-1 Marlins

In the Bottom of the 6th with 1 out and runners on 1st & 2nd, Ty France crushes a 3-run home run, shifting San Diego's win probability by +24.5% to virtually seal the contest at 98.7%.

WPA: +24.5% Lead Extended: +3 Runs Final Game State: Padres 6, Marlins 1
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