Intervention Levers
Real-time Rt Modifiers
64%
71%
48%
58%
Analytical Scenarios
Epidemiological Context: While transmission has decelerated below R=1 in several health zones due to ring vaccination and safe burials, public health teams caution against premature declarations until secondary contacts complete the 21-day incubation window.
Dynamic Trajectory Simulation (90-Day Outlook)
SEIR Epidemiological Engine
Simulated Active Transmission
Unmitigated Baseline Trajectory
Estimated Outbreak Peak Horizon
Cumulative Recoveries
Simulation Interpretation: Dragging contact tracing and ring vaccination levers directly reduces effective reproduction number (Rt). As Rt falls beneath 1.0, case velocity decays, advancing containment without guaranteeing immediate zero-transmission.
Peak Certainty & Hotspots
Field Clusters
34.5%
Statistical Peak Probability
Key Health Zones
| Zone | Cases | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Beni | 54 | Progress |
| Mabalako | 38 | Active Chain |
| Katwa | 16 | Monitored |
| Butembo | 10 | Stabilizing |
Source Telemetry: UN/WHO Health Cluster & DRC Ministry of Health situation logs via Reuters news dispatch.