Contrail vs Carbon Climate Tradeoff Simulator

Atmospheric Vertical Profile: Drag waypoints (W1-W4) to detour around Ice-Supersaturated Region (ISSR) Active Altitude: 37,000 ft

Optimal FL370 ISSR Cirrus Trigger Zone Warming Contrail Plume Rerouted Flight Path

Contrail Plume Length

2,450 km

Extra Jet Fuel Burn

+0.0% (0 kg)

GWP-20 Net Climate Impact

+184.2 tCO2e

GWP-100 Net Climate Impact

+68.5 tCO2e

Multi-Decadal Radiative Forcing (0 to 100 Years)

Carbon Market Value: Contrail Credits vs Extra Fuel Cost

Atmospheric Parameters Night (21:00 UTC)

Flight Diurnal Cycle Night (Thermal Trapping)

ISSR Humidity (RHi) 124% (Persistent)

ISSR Altitude Band FL340 - FL390

Carbon Offset Market Lab Policy Test

Carbon Price (ETS / Voluntary) $90 / tCO2

Contrail Credit Multiplier 1.5x CO2e

Jet Fuel Price ($/ton) $850 / ton

⚠️ Perverse Incentive Triggered

Airlines earn more in contrail cooling credits than fuel detour costs, but long-lived CO2 remains in the atmosphere for 100+ years, generating net warming beyond year 15.

Source Insight (The Economist): "A market which links contrail cooling to carbon prices could incentivise airlines to burn more fuel to lessen environmental impact... But it would be a mistake."

Multi-Decadal Radiative Forcing (0 to 100 Years)

Carbon Market Value: Contrail Credits vs Extra Fuel Cost

Atmospheric Parameters Night (21:00 UTC)

Carbon Offset Market Lab Policy Test

Flight Corridor Audit & Policy Integrity Telemetry