US CPI & Fed Rate Hike Probability Workbench

CPI Basket Component Weighting

Gasoline & Energy Weight: 6.95% -1.80%

Shelter / Rent Index Weight: 36.20% +0.30%

Food & Beverages Weight: 13.40% +0.10%

Core Goods ex-Food/Energy Weight: 18.85% +0.20%

Core Services ex-Shelter Weight: 24.60% +0.25%

Recent CPI vs Benchmark Policy Rate

Month	CPI MoM	CPI YoY	Fed Funds Rate
July (Proj)	+0.18%	3.16%	5.25% - 5.50%
June	+0.18%	3.00%	5.25% - 5.50%
May	+0.00%	3.30%	5.25% - 5.50%
April	+0.30%	3.40%	5.25% - 5.50%

FOMC Rate Decision Implied Probability Density

D3 Probability Visualizer

Rate Cut (-25bps)

0.0%

Rate Pause (Hold)

88.5%

Rate Hike (+25bps)

11.5%

Domain Interpretation: Easing gasoline prices offset sticky shelter costs, anchoring July MoM CPI near 0.18%. D3 probability distribution shifts left toward rate pause consensus with reduced tail risk of rate hikes.