Florida GOP Primary Model • Sophie Rain Case Benchmark
Grounded in James Fishback 50% OnlyFans Sin Tax Proposal
Policy Levers & Dynamics
Proposed Creator Sin Tax50%
Relocation / Evasion Elasticity1.8
Creator Baseline Revenue$5,000,000
Counterfactual Presets
Electoral & Economic Incidence
9.8%
3rd Place (~9.8% Vote Share)
$1,500,000
Creator Net Income (Sophie Rain)
62.5%
Effective Platform Drag
54.2%
Platform Outmigration Risk
GOP Primary Ballot Projection
$5M Earnings Incidence Breakdown
State Tax Yield vs Outmigration Elasticity CurveRevenue Inflection Peak: 38.5%
Campaign & Incidence Analysis: Proposing a 50% targeted digital creator excise tax mobilizes an enthusiastic religious-conservative primary core (~10.2% turnout bump), but triggers strong suburban anti-tax backlash and digital-native opposition, cementing a 3rd Place finish (~9.8% vote share). On the incidence side, outmigration risk reaches 54.2%, well past the 38.5% Laffer maximum.