Wisconsin Democratic Primary Coalition & Electability Simulator

Strategy Presets:

72-County Choropleth Vote Map

Click any county to inspect local demographic elasticity and vote share shift

GOP/Trailing Tossup Dem Lead

Loading 72 Wisconsin Counties...

WOW Counties

Waukesha, Ozaukee, Wash.

D +0.0%

Urban Base

Milwaukee & Dane

Turnout: 68%

Driftless Swing

SW Rural Moderates

D +0.0%

Policy Position Spectrum 0.35 (Moderate Crossover)

0.00 Progressive Base 0.50 Moderate Centrist 1.00 Conservative Shift

Suburban WOW Outreach +18.0% Swing Gain

0% Neutral +15% Crowley Target +30% Max Outreach

Urban Base Mobilization Boost +12.0% Turnout

0% Normal Turnout +12% Baseline +25% Surge

Driftless Rural Moderation Shift +5.0% Shift

-10% Base Backlash +5% Moderate Appeal +15% Peak Crossover

Primary Vote Share

Primary Secured

General Election Margin

+1.8%

10 Electoral Votes

Winning Coalition Mix:

• Suburban WOW Counties (Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington)
• Driftless Area Moderates
• Milwaukee & Dane Base

Urban Base Region

Pop: 939k

Primary Margin: D +38.2%

General Margin: D +41.5%

Base Turnout Rate: 74.2%

Suburban Elasticity: 0.82 High

"Core urban Democratic stronghold. Moderation slightly softens peak enthusiasm here, but suburban gains statewide easily offset small turnout dips."