Bases-Loaded Jam & "Crooked Number" Momentum Lab

Inspired by the classic baseball turning point: pitching out of a bases-loaded 5th inning jam, then immediately posting 2+ runs in the 6th. Explore Run Expectancy (RE24), Leverage Index, and Win Probability swings.

Inning State Builder

Game Presets

Inning & Half Current Outs

Base Runners

Click individual bases to test bases empty, corners, or scoring position.

Score Differential (Defending Pitcher Team)

Bottom 5th: Bases Loaded, 2 Outs

Official MLB RE24 Empirical Run Expectancy & Leverage Model

Leverage: 3.42 (High Stress)

Bottom 5th • Jam

OUTS:

Run Expectancy 0.75 runs Opponent expected runs left in inn.

Leverage Index (LI) 3.4x Baseline average MLB = 1.0

Current Win Exp. 48.2% Defending team win probability

Jam Escape WPA Swing +14.6% Win gain upon getting out 3

Top 6th "Crooked Number" Odds 29.4% (2+ runs)

Historical MLB distribution of runs scored in the immediately following half-inning:

70.6%

0 R

15.2%

1 R

8.4%

2 R

3.8%

3 R

2.0%

4+ R

*A "crooked number" is baseball parlance for any inning with 2 or more runs scored (not a zero or straight line "1").

Execute Escape Pitch or Inning Play Full Inning Simulation

5th Inning: Opponent loads bases with 2 outs. Max leverage. LI: 3.42

Select base runners or trigger pitch escape sequences above.

Export Scenario Audit

The RE24 & Bases-Loaded Paradox

The Run Expectancy Matrix (RE24) tracks average expected runs scored until the half-inning ends across all 24 possible base-out states. With bases loaded and zero outs, teams average 2.28 runs. Even with two outs, the expected run production is still 0.75 runs.

Getting out of a bases-loaded jam yields zero runs against, effectively handing the pitching team nearly an entire run saved in expected margin plus huge psychological momentum.

The "Crooked Number" Phenomenon

In standard MLB games, roughly 71% of half-innings result in zero runs, and another 15% yield exactly 1 run (a "straight number"). That leaves roughly 14% to 29% chance of posting a "crooked number" (2, 3, 4, 5+ runs) depending on the part of the batting order.

When the Braves or any contending club escapes the 5th inning without giving up a run and comes up in the top of the 6th, their win expectancy swings by 25-45% in under 15 minutes of real-world game time.

Leverage Index (LI) Dynamics

Tom Tango's Leverage Index benchmarks how critical an individual plate appearance is to the final game outcome. A standard MLB play has an LI of 1.0. A bases-loaded situation in a close middle or late inning can peak at 3.0 to 5.5 LI.

Pitchers who strand inherited runners in these scenarios create the highest single-play Win Probability Added (WPA) peaks of the regular season.