Legislative Stage-Gate Decomposition
Hurdle Analytics & Execution
Critical Bottleneck
Senate Cloture
Contract Fair Value
$0.65
Kelly Edge / Rec
Neutral (0 bps)
Est. Legislative Days
160 / 365d
365-DAY STATUTORY TIMELINE BUDGET
FEASIBLE (43.8% UTILIZED)
■ Active Deliberation
▦ Congressional Recess
■ Buffer
Stage Sensitivity Matrix (±5% Impact on Contract)
| Legislative Stage | Current | -5% Shock | +5% Shock |
|---|
Kalshi market is priced efficiently at 65.0%. Senate Cloture (60-vote threshold) represents the primary structural drag with 83.9% conditional survival rate.