Model Cumulative Probability
65.2%
Spread vs. Market: +0.2%
Primary Bottleneck Stage
Senate Cloture
Conditional P: 76.0%
Quarter-Kelly Stake Suggestion
Flat / Hold
EV: +0.3% (Edge: 0.2¢)
Legislative Milestone Decomposition
The probability of statutory enactment equals the sequential product: P(Enacted) = P(S₁) × P(S₂|S₁) × P(S₃|S₂) × P(S₄|S₃) × P(S₅|S₄). Adjust conditional milestone odds below to model political friction and procedural shortcuts.
STAGE 1 OF 5
Hist: 88%
House Committee Markup
House Financial Services & Agriculture Joint Jurisdiction review and favorable reporting.
P(Step | Prev)
94.0%
Joint Ag-FinServ Unity
Step Reach: 94.0%
STAGE 2 OF 5
Hist: 82%
House Floor Passage
Full House debate under structured rule and simple majority roll-call floor vote.
P(Step | Prev)
91.0%
Suspension of Rules (2/3)
Step Reach: 85.5%
STAGE 3 OF 5
Hist: 54%
Senate Banking & Cloture
Navigating Senate Banking markup and the decisive 60-vote filibuster-proof cloture threshold.
P(Step | Prev)
80.0%
Bipartisan Gang Co-Sponsors
Step Reach: 68.4%
STAGE 4 OF 5
Hist: 91%
Senate Floor Final Passage
Final Senate up-or-down vote and conference reconciliation / amendment concurrence.
P(Step | Prev)
97.0%
Unanimous Consent Expedited
Step Reach: 66.4%
STAGE 5 OF 5
Hist: 96%
Presidential Signature
Executive signature into public law versus formal presidential veto or pocket veto risk.
P(Step | Prev)
98.0%
Executive Order Alignment
Final Enactment: 65.1%
Monte Carlo Trial Engine
Simulate 10,000 legislative congressional pathways
Sim Enactment Rate
65.1%
Median Days to Law
164 Days
Fatal Chokepoint
Senate Cloture
Market Calibration Matrix
Quantitative trading calibration against Kalshi order book contracts.
| Metric Parameter | Model Val | Market Implied | Delta / Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enactment Probability | 65.1% | 65.0% | +0.1% |
| Contract Fair Value (¢) | 65.1¢ | 65.0¢ | +0.1¢ |
| Expected Value (EV) | +0.2% | 0.0% | Long YES |
| Full Kelly Criterion | 0.3% Bankroll | — | Optimal Max |
| Quarter-Kelly (Conservative) | 0.1% Bankroll | — | Risk-Adjusted |
| Breakeven Floor Win Rate | 65.0% | 65.0% | Zero EV Floor |
Trading Signal Interpretation:
Market is efficiently calibrated to current fundamentals. When your model edge exceeds ±3.5¢, directional Kelly sizing recommends capital allocation.
Institutional Intelligence Note: The 60-Vote Cloture Chokepoint
At Kalshi's 65% baseline enactment price, the market implicitly prices an 80% survival rate through the Senate Banking Committee and floor cloture petition. Historically, comprehensive financial technology statutes (such as Dodd-Frank Title VII and FIT21) face a 46% failure rate in the Senate without pre-negotiated bipartisan sponsorship. Adjusting the Senate Cloture conditional rate below 72% immediately flips expected value toward the NO (35¢) contract.