Crypto Policy Impact Analyzer

Decompose aggregate cryptocurrency market shifts following regulatory votes, executive orders, and legislative defeats (such as the CLARITY Act) into macro market beta versus policy-specific excess relief.

Event Presets:

Event & Macro Parameters Model Inputs

Event Milestone Headline

Observed Market Cap Shift (Δ MCap) +$210.0 B

Total change across digital assets in post-event window.

Pre-Event Total Market Cap Baseline $2,450 B

Nasdaq / S&P Macro Benchmark Move +1.80%

Global equity benchmark movement over identical window.

Crypto Sector Systemic Beta (β) 2.25x

Estimated sensitivity of digital asset aggregate to macro equity liquidity.

Sector Capital Flow Allocation Weights (%)

Layer 1 Core (BTC/ETH) 58% wt

DeFi & Staking 18% wt

Infra & Layer 2 14% wt

Stablecoins & RWA 10% wt

Gross Market Cap Shift +$210.0B +8.57% total

Macro Beta Contribution +$99.2B 47.2% systemic

Regulatory Policy Alpha +$110.8B 52.8% pure shock

Abnormal Return (CAR) +4.52% t-stat: 3.42 (p < 0.01)

Capital Attribution & Event Trajectory (T-3 to T+14 Days)

Decomposes counterfactual benchmark baseline from policy-driven net inflow.

Counterfactual Base

Macro Equity Beta

Policy Relief Alpha

Event Horizon Scrubber: Day T+7

Sector Disaggregation & Relief Absorption Attributed Inflows

Digital Asset Sector	Est. Pre-Cap	Macro Beta Flow	Policy Alpha Flow	Net Sector Inflow	Total Return

Ready: Quantitative attribution model calibrated to post-CLARITY Act failure dataset.

Methodology: Policy Shock Event Studies

When sweeping digital asset legislation (such as restrictive market-structure acts) fails in committee or congress, asset valuations surge due to removed compliance overhang. However, raw headline market cap claims (+ $210B) conflate broader economic liquidity with legislative relief.

This model uses a counterfactual Single-Index Model (SIM):
R_crypto(t) = α_policy + β_macro * R_macro(t) + ε(t)
By disentangling the systemic component (β * ΔMacro * MCap), analysts can isolate the genuine abnormal surplus directly generated by the regulatory clearance.

Why Sector Breakdown Matters

Regulatory bills rarely affect all tokens equally. Securities-clarity laws disproportionately burden high-velocity DeFi governance protocols and staking tokens, while Bitcoin and Ethereum frequently trade on commodity/ETF liquidity.

Adjusting sector elasticity weights reveals whether the +$210B rally is broad-based speculative expansion or acute regulatory relief concentrated in decentralized infrastructure.