Crypto Rulemaking Velocity & Agency Scope Simulator

Policy Parameters Bernstein Projection

Rulemaking Velocity Pace Aggressive (Swift)

Deliberate Standard Aggressive Emergency

Jurisdictional Weighting 50% SEC / 50% CFTC

100% SEC Primary Joint Guidance 100% CFTC Primary

CLARITY Act Status (Statutory Vacuum)

When CLARITY fails, independent administrative agencies accelerate rulemaking through the APA without congressional boundaries.

APA Legal Challenge Intensity Elevated (Major Questions)

Source Basis: Cointelegraph reporting Bernstein research: Bernstein expects "aggressive and swift" SEC and CFTC crypto rulemaking after CLARITY failed to advance. Captured Sept 2026.

Projected Regulatory Friction Index (12-Month Horizon) Real-Time Agency Simulation

Peak Friction Score

78.5

Notice-to-Final Time

5.2 mo

Dual-Filing Burden

84%

Injunction Probability

62%

Projected Federal Register Milestones 4 Critical Events

Horizon	Agency	Docket Milestone	Expected Impact	Legal Vulnerability