Cuba Market Reforms Simulator & Sectoral Impact Analyzer

Strategic Reform Presets:

Sim Horizon: 24 Months | Macro Base: 2026

Macro-Reform Policy Cockpit Direct Levers

Private Direct Import Licensing 80%

Permits private MSMEs to bypass state trading monopoly (MINCEX/CIMEX).

FX Liquidity & Auction Access 65%

Legal conversion access between state banking reserves & informal cash pools.

Price Ceiling Flexibility 70%

Relaxes strict municipal caps on retail chicken, oil, milk, and flour.

State Enterprise Autonomy (OSDE) 45%

Allows state firms to retain export profits & partner with private entities.

Subsidy Rationalization to Cash 40%

Transitions universal ration basket subsidies to targeted vulnerable cash transfers.

External Friction Stress Testing:

Fuel & Tanker Sanctions Enforcement OFF

Remittance Banking Channel Blocks OFF

Sovereign Credit & Trade Line Freeze OFF

Basic Goods Supply Deficit 18.2% ↓ -25.8% vs Baseline (44.0%)

Informal Exchange Rate 312 CUP/USD ↓ Stabilized from 380

Formal Private Employment 35.8% ↑ +220,000 Private Workers

Fiscal Deficit (% GDP) 11.4% ↓ -3.4% from 14.8% GDP

Macroeconomic Sectoral Transmission: FX, Retail Pipelines & Labor

State Monopolies

Private MSMEs

FX Pool

Household Ration

24-Month Stabilization Trajectory Informal FX (CUP) & Deficit Rate (%)

Transmission Mechanism Inspector Empirical Elasticity & Pass-Through

Structural Channel	Elasticity Beta	Observed Impact	Status