Cuban Regime Fall Probability Analyzer

Polymarket Terminal • 2026 Year-End Catalyst & Liquidity Model

Base Implied Odds: 10.0%
Posterior Probability: 10.0%

Bayesian Probability Updating & Timeline Trend

Prior vs. Catalyst-Updated Posterior Probability Curve

Prior Baseline
Posterior Curve
Effective Entry Price $0.1010 +0.99% slippage
Max Expected Payout $99,009 9.90x Multiplier
Expected Value (EV) +$1,500 +15.0% ROI
Implied Volatility / Risk 3.8% Kelly Criterion Fraction

Trade Scenario & Risk Summary

Export structured JSON parameter state and calculated expected values.

Canonical Verification Output

Selected Direction: YES
Updated Probability: 10.0%
Net Expected Value: +$0.00
Execution Slippage: 0.00%
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