Bayesian Probability Updating & Timeline Trend
Prior vs. Catalyst-Updated Posterior Probability Curve
Prior Baseline
Posterior Curve
Effective Entry Price
$0.1010
+0.99% slippage
Max Expected Payout
$99,009
9.90x Multiplier
Expected Value (EV)
+$1,500
+15.0% ROI
Implied Volatility / Risk
3.8%
Kelly Criterion Fraction
Trade Scenario & Risk Summary
Export structured JSON parameter state and calculated expected values.
Canonical Verification Output
Selected Direction: YES
Updated Probability: 10.0%
Net Expected Value: +$0.00
Execution Slippage: 0.00%