Market Scenarios
PRESETS
Order Book Controls
Yes Contract Price (Implied Prob)
88.0%
Bid-Ask Spread ($)
$0.02
Bid Depth ($ Liquidity)
$450k
Ask Depth ($ Liquidity)
$125k
News Shock Injection
Drag canvas to draw custom curve
Implied Deal Valuation
$5.28B
Base Club Val: $6.0B
Liquidity Slippage (10k)
1.12%
Depth-weighted execution
Arbitrage vs Sportsbook
+1.85%
Bench Decimal Odds: 1.12
Bid / Ask Ratio
3.60x
Net Bullish Pressure
Payout Matrix ($10,000 Position)
| Outcome | Payout | Net Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| YES (Acquired) | $11,363 | +$1,363 | +13.6% |
| NO (Failed) | $0 | -$10,000 | -100.0% |
Probability Distribution Analysis
Expected Portfolio Value
$10,000
Fair market value at 88.0% prob
Market Implied Volatility
32.5%
Derived from order depth imbalance