Autonomous Fleet Economics & Equity Bridge
Stress-test robotaxi cash flows, regulatory lag penalties, and implied TSLA fair value per share.
Implied Fair Value
$150.62
vs $217.80 spot (-30.84%)
Cybercab DCF Value / Share
$38.42
Network option value
Core Auto & Energy / Share
$112.20
33x P/E on $3.40 Core EPS
Cab Annual Gross Margin
$47,450
Per vehicle @ 65,000 mi
2030 Fleet Gross Revenue
$35.88B
40% ramp maturity (delay adjusted)
Operational Levers
Cybercab Unit Build Cost
$30,000
Targeted unboxed manufacturing capex per cab
Commercial Launch Year
2027
Earliest unsupervised commercial rollout
Regulatory Approval Delay
+2 Years
State-by-state licensing & NHTSA safety review lag
Customer Fare / Mile
$1.15
Uber/Lyft parity (~$2.20) vs ultra-low volume fare
Fleet Operating Cost / Mile
$0.42
Electricity, tires, cleaning, remote teleoperation & insurance
2030 Fleet Target (Vehicles)
1,200,000
Dedicated autonomous fleet volume globally
Tesla Network Take Rate
25%
Platform commission on third-party & partner cabs
Annual Miles per Cab
65,000
Vehicle utilization (180–270 revenue miles/day)
TSLA Share Price Valuation Bridge
Decomposing market price ($217.80) vs Model Implied Fair Value
-30.84% Deficit
Commercial Launch Delay Sensitivity Table
Impact of Regulatory Friction on 2030 Fair Value
| Launch & Delay Scenario | Effective Operations | 2030 Fleet Rev ($B) | Cab Gross Margin/Yr | DCF Value / Share | Total Fair Value |
|---|