WeatherNext Cyclone Track & Lead-Time Simulator

Geospatial Forecast Trajectory & Cone of Uncertainty CAT 4 RECURVING CYCLONE

Ground Truth Trajectory

WeatherNext AI Ensemble (±35.8% Spread Reduction)

NWP Numerical Baseline (Standard Spread)

Forecast Horizon: T+72h

Forecast Lead-Time Telemetry +24.5h ADVANTAGE

Track Error (72h)

138 km

NWP: 215 km (-35.8%)

Lead-Time Extension

+24.5 hrs

Actionable prep window

Peak Intensity

130 kts

Min 938 hPa

Coastal Evacuation Readiness

92.4%

Safe prior to gale onset

Scenario & Counterfactual Parameters

Benchmark Storm Scenario:

Sea Surface Temp (°C) 29.5°

Steering Shear (kts) 12kt

Municipal Emergency Decision Matrix