Dan Campbell Underdog ATS Spread Performance Lab

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills Prime Time Spotlight

Active Closing Spread: Lions +5.5 Underdogs

DET LIONS

Dan Campbell Coaching Tenure

Underdog 4+ Pts: +5.5

AT

BUF BILLS

Highmark Stadium

Favorite: -5.5

Historic ATS Baseline

21-8 ATS

Baseline Cover Prob

72.4%

Spread Value Delta

+3.4 pts vs closing spread

Simulated Cover Pct

72.4%

Spread Simulator & Parameters Interactive Modeling

Simulated Lions Underdog Spread (+Pts) +5.5

+4.0 (Min qualifying) +9.0 +14.0 (Blowout spread)

Key Presets:

Sample Scope Filter N=29 Games

Analysis examines all 29 Dan Campbell regular-season contests where Detroit opened or closed as a 4.0+ point underdog.

D3.js Cover Margin Distribution 21 Covers / 8 Losses

Covered Spread (Margin > 0)

Failed to Cover (Margin < 0)

Simulated Threshold Cutoff

Representative Underdog Ledger (4+ Pts) Evan Abrams / B/R Betting Research

Season/Wk	Opponent	Closing Line	Final Score	Cover Margin	Result