LIVE NFL BETTING AUDIT ATS Trend Lab
Source: @br_betting (H/T @EvanHAbrams)

Super Bowl Loser Week 1 ATS Trends Explorer

Analyzing the notorious "Super Bowl Hangover": runner-ups are 6-20 ATS (23.1% cover rate) in Week 1 since the 2000 season. Test current lines, filter splits, and inspect historical margins against point spreads.

Overall Week 1 ATS Record
6-20
26 games since 2000
Historical Cover Rate
23.1%
-14.5 Units ($100 bettor ROI)
Road Underdog ATS Split
2-7 (22.2%)
Patriots +3.5 context
Avg Margin vs Spread
-4.6 pts
Consistently underperforming line

Matchup Spread Simulator

Dynamic Engine
Quick Presets:
+3.5
Historical Context Match: Road Underdogs (+0.5 to +7) High Fade Warning
Sample Size
9 games
ATS Record
2-7 ATS
Cover Pct
22.2%
Historically, Super Bowl losers playing on the road as underdogs in Week 1 fail to cover 77.8% of the time, dropping an average of -5.1 points against the spread.

📊 ATS Outcome Distribution

Full 2000–2025 Era
Total Non-Covers (Lost ATS): 20 (76.9%)
Total Covers (Won ATS): 6 (23.1%)
Net ATS Unit Differential: -14.5 Units
Location:
Spread Line:
Season Super Bowl Loser Week 1 Opponent Location Closing Line Final Score ATS Margin ATS Result
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