Inning-by-Inning Win Probability
AZ WP: 11%
Scrub through game checkpoints or click milestones to observe Arizona's road comeback climb from 11% to 100%.
Rally Progress Scrubber
Milestone 1 of 5 (End of 6th)
Houston Holds 3-Run Lead (End 6th)
Astros bullpen in control with a 4-1 cushion. Arizona's historical road win expectancy stands at just 11%.
Late-Inning Win Probability Added (WPA) & Leverage Sequence
Minute Maid Park Road Rally
Detailed breakdown of Arizona's four unanswered runs across innings 7 through 9 to overturn Houston's 4-1 lead.
| Inning | Score (AZ-HOU) | Rally Play / Milestone Description | Lev. Index | Win Prob (AZ) | Δ WPA |
|---|
Anatomy of a 9th-Inning Road Comeback
1. Base-Out Deficit Math
Entering the 7th inning down 4-1 on the road, standard Major League win probability models assign an away team roughly an 11% likelihood of victory. Overcoming a three-run gap requires either multiple walks or extra-base power against modern high-velocity relief arms.
2. The 9th-Inning Leverage Spike
Arizona's peak leverage index occurred in the Top of the 9th at 3.88 LI (nearly four times higher than an average baseball plate appearance). The two-out, two-run clutch go-ahead hit produced a massive +0.51 Win Probability Added (WPA) swing.
3. Closer Shutdown Closure
Securing three outs in the bottom of the 9th with a one-run lead represents an 82% initial win threshold that rapidly converges to 100% as Houston's hitters are retired in sequence without extra-base traffic.