Inning-by-Inning Win Probability Timeline
Real-time D3.js win probability model tracking Arizona's early lead vs. Colorado's 12-run comeback rally
Actual Path
Counterfactual
Top 1st | 0 Out
Rally Leverage Breakdown Matrix
Play-by-play leverage index (LI) & win probability added (WPA)
| Inning | Play Summary | Score | LI | WPA |
|---|
Counterfactual Rally Simulator
Alter key plate outcomes to observe real-time win probability recalculation
Historical Comeback Leverage Context
How Colorado's 12-run performance compares against standard MLB leverage thresholds
Min Rockies Win Prob
3.2%
Bottom 4th Inning
Max Peak Leverage (LI)
4.82
High-Stress Outing
Total Unanswered Runs
12
Offensive Comeback Spike
Simulated Final WP
100.0%
Current Scenario Outcome