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Derek Carr Solo Ace Odds Pardon My Take Case Study

Athlete & Hole Scenarios USGA Baseline Models
Golfer Handicap Index 4.0 HCP
Par-3 Distance 165 yds
Course Traffic & Conditions Empty Course (Dawn Patrol)
Adjacent Witnesses on View 0 Witnesses
Weather & Pin Placement Difficulty Calm / Center Green
Source Event: Derek Carr reported hitting a hole-in-one with absolutely nobody around to see it (via @PardonMyTake).
Trajectory & Witness Field Model Live Dynamic Engine
Par 3: 165 YDS • Cup Pos: Center • Witnesses: 0
Hole-in-One Odds
1 in 12,500
0.0080% per shot
Zero-Witness Likelihood
Given course density
95.0%
Mathematically rare solo feat requiring statistical verification.
For a 4 handicap golfer from 165 yards, sinking an ace occurs roughly once every 12,500 par-3 attempts. On an empty early-morning course, the probability of zero witnesses is high (95.0%), creating the classic golfer's existential dilemma: an incredible shot with nobody to corroborate.
Course Density & Witness Probability Table
Traffic State Avg Course Visibility P(0 Witnesses)
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