Parlay Ticket Builder
Wager Stake (USD)
$10.00
$
Shovel Pass Volatility / Luck Offset
Baseline (0%)
Simulate how miraculous live-play variance swings real odds and hit rate.
Export Slip & Probabilities
Download verified parlay math report for audit or sports betting analysis.
Simulated Successfully
Total Combined Odds
+28,500
286.00x Decimal
Payout on Stake
$2,860.00
Profit: $2,850.00
True Implied Prob
0.35%
1 in 286 hits
Bookmaker Vig
4.82%
Compounded juice
Expected Value (EV)
-$0.48
-4.82% ROI edge
Payout & Compounding Curve
Stake vs. Return TrajectoryLeg-by-Leg Implied Probability Decay
Individual Legs vs. Parlay ProductThe Math Behind the "Shovel Pass" Miracle
Parlay payouts multiply decimal odds: Decimal Odds = (American / 100) + 1.
Because each independent leg multiplies probability, a 4-leg slip compounding 40.0% × 31.25% × 22.22% × 7.69% converges to a microscopic 0.35% true hit rate.
The sportsbook vig compounds multiplicatively across every leg, turning small theoretical hold into a substantial house edge.