Dersimelagon Licensing & Milestone Valuation Engine

Deal Structure Presets

Milestone Bio-Dollars ($M) $435.0M

Upfront Consideration $50M

Clinical Development Gates (Ph2/3) $110M

Regulatory Clearances (FDA/EMA) $125M

Commercial Sales Hurdles $150M

Clinical Probabilities of Success (PoS)

Phase 2b → Phase 3 PoS 58%

Phase 3 → NDA Submission PoS 64%

NDA → Regulatory Approval PoS 88%

Commercial & Financial Levers

Peak Annual Sales ($M) $420M

Tiered Net Sales Royalty 12.0%

Discount Rate (Cost of Capital) 10.5%

Headline Bio-Dollars

$435.0M

Total Unadjusted Deal Ceiling

Risk-Adjusted Expected Payout

$184.72M

Probability & Time-Discounted (rNPV)

Cumulative PoS to Market

32.67%

Ph2 → Commercial Approval

Peak Annual Royalty

$50.40M

At Peak Sales of $420M

Mechanism of Action (MoA): Selective Oral MC1R Agonist

Dersimelagon (MT-7117) activates the Melanocortin-1 Receptor (MC1R) on melanocytes, stimulating eumelanin synthesis without α-MSH systemic off-target binding. This provides systemic photoprotection for Erythropoietic Protoporphyria (EPP) and antifibrotic skin barrier remodeling in Systemic Sclerosis (SSc).

Deal Bio-Dollar Waterfall vs. Expected Risk-Adjusted Payout

10-Year Projected Cashflow & Royalty Trajectory ($M)

Milestone Tranche Ledger & Probability Weighting LEO Pharma Global Licensing Terms

Deal Tranche	Nominal Value	Clinical / Market Gate	Cumulative PoS	Discount Factor	Risk-Adjusted Value

Status: Validated Biopharma Valuation Snapshot Active