OOTT Diesel Crunch vs Jet Fuel Refine-Mix Simulator

Modeling Javier Blas's analysis: "Easing the diesel crunch is harder than summer jet-fuel boosts"
Crude Slate & Operations CDU: 250k bpd
Crude Feedstock Slate Arab Heavy
360°C
320°C (Kero/Jet Rich) 360°C (Baseline) 385°C (Deep Diesel)
72%
40% (Low Desulfurization) 72% (Representative) 98% (Max H₂ Draw)
Refinery Presets
Crunch Severity Metric 78.4 / 100
Calculated from hydrogen unit capacity, flash point degradation, and viscosity pressure.
“Jet fuel is chemically simpler to expand: cut lighter into kerosene, where sulfur is modest and viscosity is naturally fluid. Pushing diesel yields forces refiners into the bottom of the barrel, exhausting hydrogen and crashing into heavy hydrotreater limits.” — Javier Blas, Energy Columnist (Bloomberg Opinion / #OOTT)
Refinery Constraint Diagnostic
Heavy hydrotreater limit reached: increasing diesel cut point raises sulfur and viscosity above spec.
CRUDE DESALT ARAB HEAVY ATM TOWER 360°C LPG / Naphtha JET A-1 / KERO 41,500 bpd HYDROTREATER 72% Sev H₂ Feed H₂ Supply (SMR) ULSD DIESEL 89,200 bpd Vacuum Residue / Bunker Fuel !
Primary Distillate Trade-Off: Shifting cut-point toward diesel robs kerosene molecules. Specification: Flash Point ≥ 55°C | Viscosity ≤ 4.1 cSt | S ≤ 10 ppm
Operational Telemetry ● Online
Diesel Yield (BPD)
89,200
35.7% of total crude
Jet Fuel Yield (BPD)
41,500
16.6% of total crude
H₂ Deficit (SCF/BBL)
145
SMR plant capacity limit
Viscosity @ 40°C
2.65 cSt
Spec: 2.0 - 4.1 cSt
Product Quality Specifications
Flash Point Spec Pass (58°C)
Diesel Sulfur in Feed 12,400 ppm
ULSD Finished Sulfur 8.4 ppm (Pass)
Distillate End Point 360°C
Jet / Diesel Yield Ratio 0.47
Blas Analysis Diagnostic
  • Jet-Boost Seasonality: Jet fuel yields (kerosene) can easily be surged during summer travel because kerosene requires 30–50% less hydrotreating than diesel.
  • Diesel Crunch Friction: Diesel demand surges when industrial and agricultural heating peak. To maximize diesel, refiners pull deeper into heavier gasoils, requiring massive volumes of hydrogen to remove sulfur and prevent engine gumming.
Enjoy this tool? Build your own with Super