U.S. Diesel Shock & Logistics Inflation Flow Explorer
Diesel powers over 70% of U.S. freight tonnage, agricultural tractors, and marine intermodal freight. Tracing how geopolitical crude bottlenecks and refining crack spreads propagate into trucking Fuel Surcharges (FSC) and consumer retail shelf prices.
Estimated U.S. Retail Diesel
$3.85
Baseline
PADD 3 Gulf Hub Baseline
Motor Carrier Fuel Surcharge (FSC)
$0.40 / mile
Baseline peg $1.25
Added to dry-van freight
Cross-Country Haul Surcharge Delta
+$1,000
2,500-mile LA → Chicago reefers
+$0.00/ton
Macro Causal Transmission Flow
Direct path: Upstream Barrel → Refinery Margin → Pump Diesel → Line-Haul Surcharge → Consumer Basket