Retail Diesel Gallon
$5.88
+41.7% vs $4.15 Baseline
Carrier Operating Cost Shift
19.4%
Fuel ratio jumps to 36.8%
Trip Surcharge (This Lane)
$697.00
$0.82 / mile fuel surcharge
Rail Intermodal Parity
430 mi
Shifts freight to rail ~140 mi earlier
1. Energy Choke & Policy Toggles
Simulates Hormuz / Iranian crude export restrictions.
Refining premium reflecting domestic distillate inventory deficits.
Dossier generated and downloaded.
2. Distillate Cost Transmission Sankey
EIA Formula: (P_diesel - P_base)/MPG
Crude Base: $2.68/gal
Refining & Crack: $1.00/gal
Dist/Wholesale: $1.55/gal
Taxes: $0.65/gal
3. Sectoral Consumer Pass-Through
| Consumer Sector | Direct Cost Add | Shelf CPI Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Delivered Grocery Pallet | +$18.40 / pallet | +2.1% |
| Retail Packaged Goods | +$0.14 / unit | +1.4% |
| Bulk Building Supplies (Lumber/Steel) | +$420 / truckload | +3.4% |
| Municipal Bus / Heavy Transit | +$1,450 / bus-mo | +5.2% budget |
4. Corridor Logistics Economics
| Corridor Distance | 850 miles |
| Base Truckload Spot Linehaul | $1,870.00 |
| Added Fuel Surcharge | +$697.00 |
| Total Landed Truck Rate | $2,567.00 |
| Rail Intermodal Equivalent | $2,080.00 (Saves $487) |
Transmission Dynamics & The Distillate Supply Bottleneck
Unlike consumer gasoline, ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) powers commercial freight networks, agricultural tractors, Class 1 freight railroads, and heavy construction excavators. Middle Eastern military actions and Iranian energy supply restrictions hit diesel with heightened velocity due to already depleted Gulf Coast distillate inventories. When the 3:2:1 crack spread spikes above $40/bbl, carrier operating ratios deteriorate rapidly because fuel escalates from 20% to over 35% of total cost-per-mile. For loads exceeding ~430 miles, shippers actively convert highway linehaul to domestic rail intermodal to bypass escalating road surcharges.