Diesel Shock: Freight Surcharge & Supply Cascade Simulator

Parameters & Contracts

Retail Diesel Pump Price ($/gal) $5.85

ABC News verified US record: $5.85/gal (Historical baseline: $3.85/gal)

Fleet Equipment & Fuel Efficiency

Haul Run Distance (miles) 1,200 mi

Avg speed: 50 mph (used for refrigeration thermal engine burn)

Contract FSC Peg Base ($/gal) $1.25

Industry standard DOE index neutral floor (commonly $1.25/gal)

FSC Formula Denominator (Target MPG) 6.0 MPG

OOIDA/Shipper contract standard: Surcharge = (Pump - Peg) / 6.0

Cargo Capacity (Staple Retail Units) 18,000 units

e.g., 18,000 grocery cartons / gallons across 42,000 lbs trailer load

Wholesale Shelf Pass-Through Rate 85%

Portion of freight fuel delta transferred from distributor to consumer price

Industry Surcharge Formula: FSC ($/mile) = [Pump Price - Base Peg] / Contract MPG Trip FSC = FSC ($/mile) × Haul Miles

Contract FSC Surcharge
$0.77/mi

            Trip Surcharge: $920.00
          

Total Fuel Burn Cost

$1,396.15

+$477.31 vs Norm

Carrier Operating Delta

+$0.40/mi

Total Run Cost: $4,020

Consumer Shelf Shock

+4.3¢ / unit

Trailer total pass-through: $782

Macro Pass-Through Transmission Cascade

Crude barrel spike to consumer checkout register

Crude & Crack Spread

$4.68/gal

Wholesale rack price before logistics & state/federal diesel excise taxes.

Linehaul Carrier FSC

+$920.00

Billed via contract formula to shipper on top of $2.58/mi spot baseline.

Wholesale Warehouse

+$0.051/unit

DC absorbs inventory holding cost before applying wholesale margin.

Retail Shelf Markup

+1.4% to +4.8%

Accumulated transport surcharge incorporated into grocery retail margins.

Trip Expense Composition ($)

Baseline vs. Shock Comparison

Base Haul Rate Fuel Surcharge (FSC) Reefer TRU Fuel

Retail Staple Price Sensitivity

Per-unit freight burden under current simulation

Commodity Good	Typical Units/Load	Added Freight	Est. Retail Impact

Active Simulation: 1,200 mi haul • $5.85/gal diesel • Reefer (5.5 MPG) • FSC $0.77/mi