MLB Sabermetrics

Dodgers Lineup Reconfiguration Lab

Context: Shohei Ohtani scratched 3rd straight game
⚾ Reconstruct Batting Order (1–9)
PRESETS:
Active Replacement Rule: When Ohtani sits, Dave Roberts shifts designated hitter duties or inserts a reserve (Kiké Hernández, Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes, Andy Pages) into the order. Use the dropdown inside any slot to test customized player substitutions.
📊 Run Expectancy & Markov Engine
Markov 24-State Transition Model
Expected Runs / Game
4.62 -0.84
Baseline w/ Ohtani: 5.46 R/G
162-Game Win Pace
88.4 -12.8 Wins
Pythagorean exponent 1.83 (Allowed: 3.98)
Lineup Synergy / wOBA Avg
.332 -.022
Weighted on-base average across 9 spots
Blowout Probability (6+ Runs)
31.2% -9.4%
Chance of scoring 6+ runs in 9 innings
Inning Micro-Simulator Top of 1st • 0 Outs • Bases Empty
Click "Simulate Inning" or "Run 1,000 Games"
Projected Runs Distribution (0 to 8+ runs) ■ Current Lineup vs Baseline
Lineup Integrity: Validated (9 Batters)

Sabermetric Breakdown: Quantifying Shohei Ohtani’s Absence

When designated hitter Shohei Ohtani sits out, the Dodgers forfeit an elite .428 wOBA and .646 slugging anchor at the top of the card. Because lead-off hitters receive approximately 4.72 plate appearances per game compared to 3.84 for the bottom of the order, removing an MVP-caliber producer reduces the Dodgers' average run expectation from 5.46 R/G to ~4.62 R/G. Over a full 162-game schedule, this ~0.84 run/game penalty equates to ~136 fewer runs scored, projecting to a 12.8-game swing in expected win-loss record.

Leadoff PA Leverage: 18.5% of all team plate appearances
Freeman/Betts Protection Factor: -3.8% walk probability reduction
Expected Run Table Baseline: 2024–2026 MLB 24-state empirical transition matrix
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