Colts WR Contingency Model

Josh Downs Calf Injury & Target Distribution

Source: Josh Downs calf injury “very minor” per @RomeovilleKid / @UnderdogNFL
Base Volume
34.0 Att

Josh Downs Workload Tier 70% Snaps

Vacated Slot Looks:
2.16 (6.4% share)
Primary Beneficiary: Michael Pittman Jr. (+1.0)

100-Drive Monte Carlo Projections

100 simulated games with stochastic target depth and catch rates:
Player Proj Tgts Floor (10th) Ceil (90th) RedZone

Target Redistribution Tree (34 Attempts) Target Share %

Passing Depth Profile (aDOT & Target Zones)

Short / Slot (0-9 yds)
48.2%
Downs, Pittman, Backfield
Intermediate (10-19 yds)
31.4%
Pittman, Mitchell, TEs
Deep Boundary (20+ yds)
20.4%
Alec Pierce, Mitchell
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