DRC Ebola Outbreak Trajectory & Historical Comparison Studio

Modeled Fatalities

2,325

Surpasses 2018-2020 record (2,287)

Effective Repro Number (Rt)

0.88

Target: Rt < 1.0 (Containment)

Deaths Prevented (Ring Vax)

1,140

vs. Unmitigated Counterfactual

Containment Day (Rt < 1.0)

Day 184

Cumulative Cases: 3,540

Intervention Sandbox SEIR-V Model

rVSV-ZEBOV Ring Vax Coverage 64%

Contact Tracing Rate 78%

Response / Isolation Latency 12 days

Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) 65.4%

Baseline R₀ 1.85

Historical & Scenario Presets

Epidemiological Trajectory & Transmission Projection (300 Days)

Active Toll

Counterfactual

Infectious I(t)

Vaccinated V(t)

Outbreak Epidemic	Year	Reported Cases	Fatalities	CFR	Key Intervention Drivers
DRC New Record Outbreak	2026	3,540	2,325	65.7%	Targeted Ring Vax (rVSV-ZEBOV), mAb114 / REGN-EB3 Therapeutics
North Kivu / Ituri	2018–2020	3,470	2,287	65.9%	First major rVSV-ZEBOV scale; security conflict barriers
Kikwit	1995	315	254	80.6%	Nosocomial containment, quarantine barrier nursing
Yambuku (Discovery)	1976	318	280	88.1%	Mission hospital quarantine, syringe contamination halts

Methodology: Continuous deterministic SEIR-V compartmental integration with dynamic transmission coefficient β(t) adjusted for rVSV-ZEBOV ring vaccination efficacy (97.5%) and contact isolation rate.

Status: SIMULATION_READY | Population N = 250,000