Ebola Outbreak Transmission & Containment Simulator 5x Accelerated Velocity

DRC Eastern Zone Crisis Model • Grounded in Reuters Epidemiological Dispatches

Emergency Containment Interventions

Uncontained - Severe Outbreak Acceleration

Compounding 5x transmission velocity, 14-day detection lag, and armed conflict barriers overwhelm local treatment capacity (30 beds).

Effective R (R_eff)
2.85
Initial: 2.85 → Final: 1.62
Cumulative Cases
2,180
Peak Active: 842 (Day 48)
Cumulative Fatalities
1,417
CFR: 65.0%
Bed Overflow Days
52 days
Max load: 842 / 30

SEIR Compartment Trajectory 90-Day Projection

Exposed
Infectious
Isolated
Fatalities
Recovered

Zonal Spatial Transmission Mesh Active Conflict Impassable

Epicenter
Compromised Zone
Treatment Unit

Effective Reproduction Number (R_eff) & Bed Capacity Deficit Containment Threshold = 1.0

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