Health Zone Flare-Up: North Kivu / Ituri Zone

Ebola Resurgence & Ring Vaccination Containment Simulator

Operational epidemiological workbench: contact-tracing network, conflict-zone access delays, and WHO 42-day surveillance clock.
Surveillance & Interventions Day 0
Ring Vaccine Coverage (Ervebo / rVSV-ZEBOV) 78%
Proportion of Primary & Secondary contacts successfully immunized.
Conflict Access Delay (Security Escort Lag) 4 Days
Days before rapid response and cold-chain reach insecure health areas.
Target Contact Tracing Ratio 85%
Safe & Dignified Burial Protocol Active
Mobile Lab Deployment (Rapid RT-PCR)
Community Displacement Flare-Up Risk
Containment Evidence & Verification
Simulated state ready for real-time audit.
Contact Transmission Network & Ring Vaccination Clusters Hover nodes to inspect transmission branch & clinical state
Index / Active Case
Secondary Infected
Vaccinated Ring (Immune)
Monitored Contact
Recovered / Isolated
Safe Burial Deceased
Epidemic Curve (Active Incubation vs Daily Incidence) Incidence tracking
WHO Surveillance Standard Monitoring
Surveillance Clock (42-Day Target)
0 / 42 d
2x Max Incubation Period (21d) with zero active transmission
Effective R (R_eff)
0.72
< 1.0 Subcritical
Projected 2° Cases
2
Controlled
Primary Contacts
34
Listed
Secondary Contacts
112
Ring Target
Outbreak Surveillance Log
[Day 0] Resurgence alert: New PCR-confirmed Index Case identified in rebel-held health zone.
[Day 0] Cold-chain ring vaccination teams mobilized. Access delay configured: 4 days.
DR Congo Ebola Resurgence Containment Model • Evaluates ring vaccination (rVSV-ZEBOV), safe burials, and community contact surveillance under insecurity • Conforms to WHO Outbreak Declaration Protocol
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