What changed
The sample gives meaningful weight to denominator effects and lagged opinion.
Arithmetic before argument
How can a weak economy and approval coexist?
Change the assumptions behind both headlines. See which mechanisms reconcile them, which do not, and what evidence would settle the question.
Gap explained72%
Plausible under selected assumptions
Check per-capita output and the poll's response window first.
Selected assumptions
Shape the comparison
How these assumptions work
Measure and baseline shape the arithmetic comparison. Household pressure, lag, issue weight, and poll margin change only the internal-consistency score. They do not prove a cause or describe any individual voter.
Representative sample loaded. Values are illustrative, not live facts.
Two signals, different clocks
Reconciliation field
Economic headline vs previous year-1.2%
MeasurementExperienceLagPrioritiesPoll range
Approval signal51–57%
Selected model resolves72%
Different denominators and a five-month opinion lag can explain much of the apparent contradiction, but household pressure remains a material counter-signal.
Ranked mechanisms
What could make the math work
Verification queue
What to inspect next
Result explanation
Plausible, not proven
72/100
explained
explained
This score measures internal consistency of your selected assumptions. It is not confidence that any political explanation is true.
What remains unresolved
The model does not establish why any individual respondent approves or disapproves.
Read the boundary
Compatibility is not causality. A possible explanation still needs evidence.
Reusable decision record
Carry the assumptions forward.
Save a scenario, compare a new release, or export the exact reasoning behind the result.
Saved scenarios
0 savedSave the current assumptions as a comparison point.